Goldman Sachs Projects Gold Hitting $4,900 by Year's End, While Gold Price Recovered Today
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts gold climbing to $4,900 an ounce by end-2026 on robust central-bank buying, while spot gold price itself has recovered slightly to $4,384 per troy ounce after today's trading session
Goldman Sachs Research is calling for gold to climb to $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, driven largely by sustained central-bank buying as reserve managers diversify away from traditional holdings. The bank's analysts caution, however, that growing use of gold derivatives for portfolio hedging could make price movements considerably choppier along the way.
Commodity strategists Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven project that gold will extend its gains through the back half of 2026, though increased activity in certain gold-linked derivatives may inject additional volatility into the trend.
Two main drivers underpin the year-end price target: an ongoing wave of reserve diversification among central banks, and fading market expectations for further U.S. rate increases this year. The strategists characterize the current pace of official-sector gold accumulation as part of a structural shift spanning multiple years, as governments look to insulate themselves against geopolitical and financial shocks.
According to Goldman's projections, central banks will average roughly 50 tonnes of monthly gold purchases in 2026, nearly triple the approximately 17-tonne monthly pace seen before 2022. The bank's real-time tracking shows sovereign buying picked up to 100 tonnes in June on a three-month, seasonally adjusted basis, up from 66 tonnes the month before, with China's central bank standing out as the largest identified buyer.
In the meantime, spot gold price itself has slightly recovered today, with price coming back to $4,384 per troy ounce, up by 1.31% in the past 24 hours alone. The gold price overall has been under pressure in the past one week, especially with the Fed's expectation to hike rates in the short-term if the battle against inflation doesn't show much progress.
Related assets: Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum