Deutsche Bank Slashes 2026 Gold Price Prediction by Over 20%
Deutsche Bank cut its Q3 gold price forecast to $4,300/oz and Q4 to $4,800/oz, citing evaporating investor demand and Fed repricing. Central bank buying remains the lone pillar of support as gold ETF outflows accelerate.
Deutsche Bank has sharply downgraded its gold price prediction for the remainder of 2026, slashing estimates by over 20% for Q3 of this year, and 17% for Q4 of this year, as investment appetite for the precious metal continues to fall amid a shifting Federal Reserve policy landscape.
Research analyst Michael Hsueh wrote in a Tuesday note that the recalibration of Fed expectations, combined with robust U.S. macroeconomic readings, has been the primary force driving gold lower. The German lender now sees gold averaging $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter before recovering to $4,800 in the final three months of the year.
Hsueh cautioned that the bank’s Q4 figure will depend on the Fed holding rates unchanged through 2026. That being said, should the central bank opt instead for three or four rate increases, he warned gold could tumble as low as $3,800 per ounce.
The retreat marks a dramatic reversal from just two months ago. As recently as mid-April, Deutsche Bank was forecasting gold reaching the $6,000 range, propelled by fiscal deficit anxieties, worldwide de-dollarization trends, and a broader rotation away from U.S. government debt by emerging-market central banks.
Evidence of waning investor conviction is mounting. Persistent outflows from gold-backed ETFs indicate that traditional investor backing for gold is notably absent. “The one pillar which remains strong is central bank demand, and we expect this to be the case for some time to come,” Hsueh wrote.
On a more constructive note, the analyst pointed to Chinese investment demand as a continued source of underlying support, observing that premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have stayed strong even as Western spot prices retreated. He drew distinctions between the current environment and prior gold downturns, arguing that the drivers behind gold allocations remain fundamentally positive.
Related assets: Gold