Deutsche Bank Believes Gold Remains in Its Course, Sticks to Year-End Target
Deutsche Bank told clients Monday that gold continues to trade in its course of price behavior that began in August 2024, with its analysis still pointing to fair value well above current levels. The German lender is maintaining its bullish year-end target for the precious metal.
Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its bullish stance on gold in a Monday note to clients, arguing the precious metal remains in what it describes as a somewhat explosive phase of price behavior that kicked off since the third quarter of 2024, and its analytical models continue to indicate fair value significantly above present trading levels.
The German banking giant is maintaining its year-end gold price target despite a turbulent stretch for the metal, which has faced headwinds from elevated interest rates and a hawkish Federal Reserve posture. The bank's analysis, drawing on data stretching back to 1957, shows that gold has historically outperformed consumer price inflation over long cycles, a trend that has persisted and even intensified in recent years despite the correction in the past few months.
Deutsche Bank's call stands in contrast to some of its Wall Street peers. Goldman Sachs recently lowered its year-end gold forecast previously, citing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold off on rate cuts through 2026 and a reduced outlook for exchange-traded fund inflows into the metal.
Central bank purchases have been a cornerstone of gold's rally since 2022, with buying activity cooling from 2024's record pace of roughly 67 tonnes per month but remaining multiples above the pre-Ukraine crisis monthly average of 17 tonnes. Deutsche Bank's strategists view this structural demand as a durable pillar supporting prices.
The note arrives as gold investors weigh conflicting signals, such as lingering inflation fears that could keep rates higher for longer, as well as the Iran conflict and its implications for energy markets, that continues to drive safe-haven demand.
Related assets: Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum